Oil Crisis

Oil Crisis
Clockwise from top left to right Egyptian Tanks rushing into battle against M.B Forces · Egyptian Tanks in a standoff against Oromo Forces · Iranian Forces in entrenched positions against Socialist Iranian Forces · Yemeni Republican Forces marching towards Ta'izz · Sudanese Republican Forces celebrating their victory against S.F.O.O Forces · Ba'athist Iraq Forces firing artillery barrages towards Baghdad in an attempt to force OFN-Supported Iraqi Republic Forces to retreat
Date	1971
Place	Theaters: Yemen Oman Egypt Sudan South Sudan Iraq Iran
Belligerents
Leaders

The Oil Crisis is a proxy conflict and economic crisis in The New Order: Last Days of Europe that canonically occurs in 1971.

Around this time, several civil wars in Middle Eastern countries will disrupt the operations of the Italian ENI company, leading to significant price fluctuations in oil value. This disruption will disrupt the global oil market, causing economic and political turmoil abroad. Pan-Arab socialist and hardline-Islamic movements, supported by foreign nations, and national democratic movements, will emerge to take back oil assets previously controlled by the Italian Empire.

Context

The Middle East, once known as the "cradle of civilization," has been a place of changing masters throughout history. The region was the birthplace of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, reaching its peak in the Islamic Golden Age before falling with the Mongol empire in 1258.

The region then played host to a rotating series of masters, including the Timurids, Ottomans, and the French and British. The collapse of Ottoman rule in 1916 during the Arab Revolt led to Franco-British promises of a united Arab state, but this was never realized as the French and British drew lines of occupation, taking the Levant and Red Sea coast into a stranglehold.

The arrival of Italian soldiers in Jerusalem in 1943 seemed to signal an era of Arab independence, but instead, Italian influence infiltrated the Golden Square government in Iraq, extended protectorates over Yemen and Oman, seized the Gulf, and pushed old masters in Turkey into newly-independent Syria and Iraq.

Build-Up

The Oil Wars were influenced by various events, including the Second Italo-Turkish War in 1963 and the dissolution of the Governate of the Levant, which led to instability in the Middle East. The Italian Empire's grip on the region was undermined, particularly after Farouk I's death. The solution to political instability in Egypt was the Muslim Brotherhood and the Free Officers' Organization, which formed major regional forces. The dissolution of the Levant will determine the formation of the United Arab Republic, as the Negev desert is crucial for a land bridge between Egypt and the rest of the peninsula. If Turkey wins the Second Italo-Turkish War, Lebanon may become a civil war between pan-Arabists and the Turkish-backed government.

Pan-Arabism and pan-Islamism gained popular support after the Egyptian instability, spreading to other Middle Eastern countries and associating with other organizations. Iraq was particularly affected by these ideologies, creating an intense political climate within the government. However, the rift between Italian control and pan-Arabic aspiration in Yemen grew, with North Yemen becoming increasingly attracted to Pan-Arabism. Italian protection managed to control this dissatisfaction, but the situation became untenable as the Italian Empire's state worsened, particularly with the collapse of Italian East Africa.

Conflict

Yemeni Civil War

Main Article: Yemeni Civil War

Royalist Yemeni forces attempt to repel an Yemeni Arab Force armored attack

In 1971, a conflict in Yemen between the predominantly pan-Arabic north and the predominantly Mutawakkilite-supporting southern half led to the emergence of the Yemeni Arab Democratic Republic. The city of Sana'a was engulfed in violence, and insurgent cells in North Yemen declared the Republic. Italian peacekeepers withdrew to the port of Aden. The pan-Arab rebels gained support from the Greater German Reich, who aimed to harm Japan and the United States' economies by creating a united Arab entity. If the Yemeni Arab Democratic Republic defeats the Kingdom of Yemen, it will rename the 'Arabian Republic' and declare war on Saudi Arabia. If successful, The Arabian Republic will be renamed and transform into a maximum-size United Arab Republic.

Omani Civil War and Dhofar Rebellion

Main Article: Omani Civil War

Instead of remaining localized, instability in Yemen spread to neighboring countries, leading to a civil war against the Sultanate of Muscat and Oman under the Imamate of Oman. The Dhofar Rebellion, a Marxist movement, emerged in southwestern Oman, initially focusing on Dhofar province but eventually expanding to Oman and joining the pan-Arab movement. The Greater German Reich supported their communist enemy to undermine the United States and Japan's influence in the Middle East, despite attempting to keep this involvement secret. The resulting instability in Yemen and the Middle East was a significant turning point in the region's history.

Egyptian, Sudanese, and Ananian Civil Wars

Main Article(s): Egyptian Civil War, Sudanese Civil War, South Sudanese Civil War

The conflict in South Arabia, if localized, would not be significant historically. However, the instability in Egypt, the largest Arab nation, would escalate the conflict into a legendary event.

Collapse of Italian Egypt and Egyptian Civil War

Clashes between Free Organization Forces and Loyalist Egyptian Forces during the Egyptian Civil War

Since the North Africa Campaign, Egypt has been a client state of the Italian Empire. However, tensions began to build around 1965 with the death of Farouk I. Italian hegemony and control allowed Egypt to stay together, but the relationship between Egypt and Sudan was tenuous and administrative issues arose. Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser saw the Dhofar and Yemeni rebellions as a signal to strike, and he denounced the central Egyptian government as an illegitimate puppet regime. He took a significant portion of the Egyptian army and launched an insurgency in western Egypt, declaring the Egyptian Revolutionary Command Council to oversee the movement. The Muslim Brotherhood initially agreed to fight against the Free Officers, but miscommunications and failed negotiations led to their own rebellion in Eastern Egypt, aiming to create an Islamic state. The German Reich funded and supported the Free Officers, while the United States supported the Egyptian central government to stabilize Italy's economy and ENI if Italy and its subjects were in the OFN alliance. The Japanese government also supported the Muslim Brotherhood, hoping radicalism would create terror and lower oil prices.

Sudanese Secession and Civil War

Sudanese Republican Forces celebrating their victory against S.F.O.O Forces

As Egypt's situation worsened, Sudan broke away from the Republic, with Governor-General Ismail al-Azhari stating no interest in fighting an Egyptian war. However, the Free Officers movement, which had significant influence among the Sudanese Armed Forces, rebelled, supported by the Greater German Reich. The Judiciary and some military under General Ibrahim Abboud seceded from the Republic, seeking Japanese support to secure Sudan's position against Ba'athist and government forces. Port Sudan's strategic location in the Red Sea and just after the Suez Canal made control crucial for ensuring the Suez Canal's security. All major parties were interested in controlling Port Sudan as an insurance policy in case the Egyptian civil war did not go as planned.

South Sudanese Conflict

The collapse of the Sudanese government had an unexpected consequence for South Sudan, a region populated not by Arabs, but by at least 60 ethnic groups more closely related to sub-Saharan Africans. South Sudan would proclaim its independence shortly after the Sudanese state fell into chaos, but just as quickly as the Republic could be declared, the Anyanya militias and the Azania Liberation Front would fall into conflict with one another. With few interests in the region, the conflict will likely be spared of much foreign intervention, and combined with low-level insurgencies, could last well into the 1980s.

Iranian Civil War

Main Article: Iranian Civil War

The Iranian Civil War is a proxy conflict that takes place in 1971, and involves all three major superpowers; additionally, if formed, the COMINTERN can provide support in a fourth column.

During the Oil Crisis, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi will be assassinated, which will result in a civil war between the ruling Imperial State and the Revolutionary Iranian Liberation Front, an alliance of the communists, constitutional monarchists, democratic liberals, islamists, and regional separatists.

Iraqi Civil War

Main Article: Iraqi Civil War

ZU-23-2 being used by the Loyalist Iranian Army

The Iraqi Republic's president, Abd al-Karim Qasim, died suddenly in 1971, leading to a conflagration of various forces in the region. The country's abundant resources, including oil, led to a riot in late 1971. The Kurds fought against Iraqi contenders to preserve their independence if Iraq took control of Northern Iraq during the Second Italo-Turkish War. The collapse of the Iraqi government marked a turning point in the crisis, leading to the shift from 'Oil Wars' to 'Oil Crisis', making it a global issue.

Effects

Collapse of ENI

Ente Nazionale Idrocarburi (ENI), a dominant firm in Italy, was a key player in the country's economy, primarily supplying Middle Eastern oil. Despite warnings from economists, the Italian government ignored the situation. The Iraqi Civil War forced ENI to restart production, causing oil prices to fluctuate rapidly. ENI was backed in a significant capacity by the Italian government, the company did not go bankrupt despite the price fluctuations and an estimated stock price drop of about 81% from $135.29 USD a share to $25.73 USD per share within 48 hours of the Iraqi conflict commencing. However, it reported record losses and continued to bleed funding from the Italian government, causing a major fiscal crisis within Italy. Globally, the perceived overnight collapse of ENI led to nearly every single nation in the world suffering major economic losses. Guangdong, for instance, saw anarchic riots consume practically the entire country.

In-game, the Oil Crisis debuff applies to every nation except for Russian unifiers, and it is impossible to remove it except with console commands. If Albert Speer were chosen as Hitler's successor, the Frankfurt stock exchange would suffer a similar collapse, leading to political turmoil and ultimately the Slave Revolt. The Oil Crisis debuff is applicable to all nations except for Russian unifiers and the Republic of China and the Iberian Union.

Superevent

The Oil Crisis Superevent occurs after the collapse of ENI, which is shortly after the start of the Iraqi civil war. The song used in the event is the opening of Sout El Gamaher, a pan-Arabic patriotic anthem praising the "voice of the masses".

Trivia

• The Oil Crisis is based on the real-life OPEC oil spikes in 1973. Its consequences in the TNO universe are much more devastating economically, affecting every country, from small middle-of-nowhere African non-entity warlords to the global superpowers.